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Ash Bullement has recently had an article published in Value in Health regarding the survival extrapolation techniques for patients treated with cancer immunotherapy. The study considers a suite of candidate survival extrapolation methods that may be suitable, and concludes that those techniques that make use of external data appear to provide more accurate longer-term survival estimates. You can read the article by following this Link

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Anthony’s publication in Statistical Methods in medical Research is now online and can be accessed here. The article discusses two ways in which historical controls can be created. The first uses data on the prior line of data to estimate the post progression survival (effectively survival without the novel intervention), the second uses data on a patient’s prior line of treatment to estimate a counterfactual. To help apply the methods, example R code is hosted on our website here.

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An article authored by Ash Bullement and Anthony Hatswell has been published in Pharmacoeconomics Open regarding the cost-effectiveness of avelumab for the treatment of metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma. The analysis provides a summary of the cost-effectiveness model submitted as part of NICE’s technology appraisal of avelumab, including the use of spline-based survival models and time-to-death based utilities. You can find the open-access article by following this Link

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An article authored by Ash Bullement has been published in the Journal of Medical Economics on the topic of survival extrapolation for patients treated with cancer immunotherapies. The article presents a review of extrapolation methods presented in company submissions to NICE, and assesses the accuracy of these extrapolations compared with later data. You can read the article for free by following this Link

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Delta Hat attended the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) annual European conference in Barcelona, Spain. The team presented research covering a range of topics including the appropriateness of Matching Adjusted Indirect Comparison (MAIC) and the accuracy of survival projections for immunotherapies. Below are all Delta Hat’s presentations at this year’s conference: W21: Indirect Treatment Comparisons: An Interactive Workshop on Choosing the Right Tool for the Available Data.

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We are pleased to welcome Emma Knowles to the Delta Hat team in the position of Analyst. Emma holds a Mathematics degree from the University of Essex, and is currently undertaking a part-time MSc in Medical Statistics at the University of Leicester. Prior to joining Delta Hat, Emma worked within the National Health Service and therefore brings a unique perspective and skill set to our range of statistical and health economic projects.

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While quite different to our usual publication work, Anthony has had an article published in Significance, the magazine of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) on the probability of getting a London Marathon place through the public ballot. The article discusses the increasing popularity of the London Marathon, and the potential reasons for the recent surge in popularity. You can read the article for free online by following this Link

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Ash and Anthony will be at ISPOR Asia Pacific in Tokyo for the next few days. Ash has a podium on Monday in the session on modelling methods (discussing the correct methodology for implementation of background mortality), whilst Anthony will be taking part in an issue panel Tuesday on collaboration between companies.

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We are pleased to welcome Sam McMordie to the Delta Hat team in the position of Analyst. Sam is currently studying for his degree in Financial Mathematics at Cardiff University, and has previously worked with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) where he applied econometric methods as part of a University Working Group collaboration. Sam will be working closely with our team of Analysts on a range of health economic and statistical projects, while also developing our website entirely through R programming.

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Anthony Hatswell will be attending the Joint Statistical Meeting (JSM) 2018 on behalf of Delta Hat in Vancouver, British Colombia, Canada from 27 July – 1 August, 2018. As one of the largest statistical events in the world, the research presented at JSM considers the latest work conducted in a variety of topics including Anthony’s presentation: Uncontrolled Studies and Health Technology Appraisal? The Need for Methods, Modeling, and Further Research. If you would like to arrange a meeting with Anthony while at JSM2018, please contact him at ahatswell@deltahat.

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