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We believe sport is important - it teaches you what it takes to win, but also how to lose with grace. In keeping with our values of encouraging people to be as good as they can, we’re please to announce that for the next 2 years Delta Hat will be sponsoring the amateur cycle team B38 / Cycles in Motion. The amateur team was founded in 2016 out of a group of university students and quickly established itself as the leading team in cycling hill climbs.

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Ash Bullement will be attending the ISPOR International annual meeting in New Orleans on behalf of Delta Hat. Please get in touch if you’d like to arrange a meeting with Ash, and if attending please feel free to attend his talks on modelling in haemophilia, a review of NICE appraisals approach to capturing health-related quality of life, and the poster he is presenting on a simulation study of utility data.

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Anthony Hatswell will be attending the NICE conference in Manchester on 9 July, if you’d like to arrange to meet for a coffee then please contact us.

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Ash Bullement has recently had an article published in Value in Health regarding the survival extrapolation techniques for patients treated with cancer immunotherapy. The study considers a suite of candidate survival extrapolation methods that may be suitable, and concludes that those techniques that make use of external data appear to provide more accurate longer-term survival estimates. You can read the article by following this Link

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Anthony’s publication in Statistical Methods in medical Research is now online and can be accessed here. The article discusses two ways in which historical controls can be created. The first uses data on the prior line of data to estimate the post progression survival (effectively survival without the novel intervention), the second uses data on a patient’s prior line of treatment to estimate a counterfactual. To help apply the methods, example R code is hosted on our website here.

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An article authored by Ash Bullement and Anthony Hatswell has been published in Pharmacoeconomics Open regarding the cost-effectiveness of avelumab for the treatment of metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma. The analysis provides a summary of the cost-effectiveness model submitted as part of NICE’s technology appraisal of avelumab, including the use of spline-based survival models and time-to-death based utilities. You can find the open-access article by following this Link

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An article authored by Ash Bullement has been published in the Journal of Medical Economics on the topic of survival extrapolation for patients treated with cancer immunotherapies. The article presents a review of extrapolation methods presented in company submissions to NICE, and assesses the accuracy of these extrapolations compared with later data. You can read the article for free by following this Link

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Delta Hat attended the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) annual European conference in Barcelona, Spain. The team presented research covering a range of topics including the appropriateness of Matching Adjusted Indirect Comparison (MAIC) and the accuracy of survival projections for immunotherapies. Below are all Delta Hat’s presentations at this year’s conference: W21: Indirect Treatment Comparisons: An Interactive Workshop on Choosing the Right Tool for the Available Data.

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We are pleased to welcome Emma Knowles to the Delta Hat team in the position of Analyst. Emma holds a Mathematics degree from the University of Essex, and is currently undertaking a part-time MSc in Medical Statistics at the University of Leicester. Prior to joining Delta Hat, Emma worked within the National Health Service and therefore brings a unique perspective and skill set to our range of statistical and health economic projects.

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While quite different to our usual publication work, Anthony has had an article published in Significance, the magazine of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) on the probability of getting a London Marathon place through the public ballot. The article discusses the increasing popularity of the London Marathon, and the potential reasons for the recent surge in popularity. You can read the article for free online by following this Link

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